by Jamil Ragland
A national Quinnipiac University poll released last week shows a statistical dead heat between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as both men suffer from high unfavorable numbers and are left to fight for a small number of voters who have not yet made up their minds
According to the poll published on May 22, President Biden leads former President Trump 48% to 47%. When minor party candidates are removed from the ballot, Biden’s lead increases slightly to 41% to 38%. Both results lie within the poll’s margin of error, making the race too close to call.
Both candidates are left to fight for a small number of voters who say that they may change their mind before the November election. 15% of Biden’s supporters say that it is either very likely or somewhat likely that they will change their minds, while 8% of Trump voters say it is somewhat likely that they’d change. Meanwhile, for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, more than half of his voters in the poll (52%) say that they may change their minds by November.
Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of political science at the University of New Haven, thinks that any big changes are unlikely.
“There’s a myth about independent voters. People like to call themselves independent, but the data shows that they’re pretty consistent,” he said in an interview.
Schmidt said that it’s difficult to say what the national numbers in the Quinnipiac poll might mean for November, because elections are held at the state level.
“We don’t have the data to see if voters who may potentially change their minds are in swing states where it could make a difference,” he said. “Right now, voters are trying to send signals about their preferences through the polls, and it’s still historically quite early.”
Beth Ginsberg, Associate Professor in Residence at the University of Connecticut’s Stamford campus, agreed that it’s difficult to draw conclusions from national polling conducted this early. She said in an interview that the number of voters who may change their mind is not surprising this far out from the election.
“There’s a lot of information for voters to still receive. It’s a long summer. So much could happen between now and November that will influence how voters act at the polls,” she said.
Ginsberg recalled the financial collapse in 2008 as a potent example of an “October surprise” that had a significant impact on the election of that year. She said that any number of events between now and election day, from a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to the slate of end-of-term rulings from the Supreme Court in June, could change voters’ minds.
Both professors said they see more potential dangers ahead for Biden than Trump as they compete for voters. Schmidt cautioned that debates are a risk for Biden; while voters expect that Trump will say outrageous things during a debate, a performance where Biden appears forgetful or unresponsive could hurt him in the long run.
Ginsberg said that Biden should be concerned about his poll numbers regarding his ability to run the economy. That was the number one concern of Americans in the Quinnipiac poll, and 54% of respondents gave the nod to Trump, compared to 42% with Biden.
“The economy is doing better, but that’s not translating to the American voter,” she said. Still, she gives credit to Americans for being willing to change their mind as the election season progresses.
“I hope that undecided voters are gaining more knowledge before they make their decisions,” Ginsberg said. “I think that’s a good thing.”