by Donald Eng
HAMDEN, CT — More than half of likely voters would give Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont a third term, according to the results of the latest Quinnipiac University poll. The same poll showed Lamont leading Sen. Ryan Fazio, his Republican challenger, among women and unaffiliated voters. Fazio held a small lead among men.
The poll surveyed 1,288 likely Connecticut voters between Sept. 8 and Sept. 14 and showed Lamont leading Fazio 55% to 38% among likely voters. Among Democrats, Lamont led 93% to 6%, while Fazio held an 86% to 10% lead among Republicans. Unaffiliated voters broke for Lamont, 48% to 42%. Women backed Lamont 64% to 30% and men leaned toward Fazio, 47% to 44%.
Nearly twice as many voters (50%) held a favorable view of Lamont than they did of Fazio (28%). Fazio, though, is hampered by the fact that 45% of voters said they did not know enough about him.
“Ned Lamont seems favored to win a third term as governor, as his opponent Ryan Fazio fights a name recognition handicap in a predominantly Democratic state,” said Doug Schwartz, the poll’s director.
In response to the poll, the Lamont campaign in a statement said voters were focused on the issues that matter to their families and the poll results reinforced what Lamont hears every day.
“Voters know the choice could not be clearer between a candidate who has a vision to keep moving Connecticut forward, and one who has desperately supported Trump’s costly and disastrous agenda, both in the legislature and during his campaign,” according to the statement.
The Fazio campaign referred to its own internal survey conducted by Cygnal that showed Lamont with a 7-point lead in what it called the initial ballot. The survey, though, also included political messaging, and the results flipped to a 45-44 Fazio lead when voters were “informed” about the contrast between the candidates. The internal poll, conducted among 600 likely voters between Sept. 9 and Sept. 11 labeled the race “very competitive.”
Asked to pick from nine topics, the cost of living (28%) and the economy (23%) topped the list of things voters said they were concerned about. Other concerns included taxes, immigration and health care. Among those who said cost of living and the economy were most important to them, the majority (63% and 58% respectively) favored Lamont. Among those who listed taxes as their top concern 72% backed Fazio. Voters most concerned about immigration backed Fazio 63% to 36%.
“Can Fazio’s strong numbers on taxes and immigration blunt Lamont’s dominance on cost of living and the economy? It is a steep uphill climb against a governor with a strong advantage in the race and years of incumbency,” Schwartz said.
Voters also reported being moderately satisfied with the way things are going in Connecticut, with 52% being either very satisfied or somewhat satisfied, compared to 47% who reported being very or somewhat dissatisfied.
The poll also asked voters their opinion of various political leaders. Senators Chris Murphy (51% approval) and Richard Blumenthal (50%) had similar ratings to Lamont. President Donald Trump scored a 28% approval rating, with 67% disapproving.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%, according to Quinnipiac.
Editor’s note — This story has been updated with reactions from both campaigns.