A new presidential election poll released Tuesday by Quinnipiac University shows that the race remains too close to call as early voting begins in some parts of the country.
Former President Donald Trump received the support of 48% of likely voters while Vice President Kamala Harris received 47%, making the race a statistical dead heat as the difference between the two candidates is within the poll’s margin of error. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each received the support of 1% of likely voters, but in a hypothetical two-way race between Trump and Harris, both candidates receive 48%.
Both candidates have rock solid support among their respective parties, with 93% of Republicans supporting Trump and 94% of Democrats supporting Harris. The difference so far appears to be among independent voters, who back Trump 47% to 44% over Harris. Some 3% of independents chose Stein and 2% support Oliver.
Trump and Harris are trending in opposite directions in terms of enthusiasm. 70% of voters are enthusiastic about supporting Harris, down from 75% when the last Quinnipiac poll was conducted. Meanwhile, Trump has gained three percentage points since then, moving to 71% showing enthusiasm from 68%.
And enthusiasm may just be the key to winning the election, according to Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy.
“On the backstretch of the race to Election Day, all eyes are on which candidate can best stoke their supporter’s enthusiasm all the way to the finish line,” he said. “A slight shift suggests the Harris crowd is not roaring as loudly as it was last month.”
Even while enthusiasm is high, both candidates are below water when it comes to favorability. Voters find Harris unfavorable 48% to 47%, but she still has room for growth with 4% of voters saying they haven’t heard enough about her. Trump has an even greater gap to overcome, with 50% of voters finding him favorable compared to 47%, and only 1% of voters saying they don’t know enough.
The negative feelings about the candidates bleed over into the outlook for both candidates’ possible presidency’s. A plurality for each candidate believe that they would be terrible as presidents, with 37% saying that about Harris and 41% feeling that way about Trump. More voters think Trump would be a great president than Harris though, giving him the nod by a 28% to 19% margin.
On six important issues for the nation, Harris comes out ahead of Trump on a majority of them. Harris beats Trump on decisions regarding:
- the use of nuclear weapons (49% to 47%);
- preserving democracy in the United States (50% to 47%);
- gun violence (50% to 45%), and;
- abortion (54% to 41%).
Meanwhile, voters believe Trump would be better for the economy (52% to 45%) and on immigration (53% to 45%). Voters also give the nod to Trump for his ability to handle a crisis that put the country at great risk, with 51% supporting him to Harris’ 47%.
One area in the poll that found majorities across all political groups is the fear of political violence after the election. Some 73% of all respondents said they were either very or somewhat concerned that there will be politically motivated violence following the outcome of the election. Those numbers break down to 90% of Democrats, 69% of independents and 59% of Republicans saying they have some level of concern about political violence.
The 2024 election season has been unprecedented in many ways, with incumbent president Joe Biden stepping aside after a disastrous debate performance in June. Former president Trump was wounded during an assassination attempt in July during a rally in Butler, PA. There are only 41 days until election day, but some states such as Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia have already begun early voting. Connecticut’s early voting begins on Monday, Oct. 21.
The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,728 likely voters nationwide from Sept. 19-22. There is a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.