| By Kevin Harris Democrats have momentum as the midterms approach. A string of recent victories has fueled optimism that Democrats could retake the House of Representatives and even reclaim the Senate. At a moment of rising global tensions and persistent economic strain on working families, Democratic control of Congress would offer a critical check on the Trump administration. But Senate majorities are not built on national waves alone. They are won or lost in a handful of fiercely competitive states. And this cycle, the path to a Democratic majority runs directly through the South. Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia could determine control of the Senate. While each state has its own political identity, they share a common reality: Black voters are central to any winning Democratic coalition. If Democrats fail to fully invest in mobilizing Black voters, they risk repeating the mistakes that have cost them power in the past. That challenge has become more urgent in light of recent Supreme Court decisions that gutted the Voting Rights Act. Now, states are largely free to gerrymander and suppress Black political power. Without the preclearance protections that once required states with histories of discrimination to get federal approval before changing voting laws, access to the ballot increasingly depends on post-facto litigation rather than prevention. In practical terms, that means Black voter participation is shaped not just by enthusiasm, but by the rules governing registration, district lines, and access to the polls. In key Southern states, these structural barriers disproportionately affect Black voters, making sustained investment in turnout efforts even more critical. Start with Texas. Long seen as a Republican stronghold, the state has been inching toward competitiveness as its major metro areas of Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio grow more diverse. Black voters make up roughly 12 to 13 percent of the electorate, but their turnout has been inconsistent, especially in midterm elections. In 2020, engagement surged in urban counties, helping narrow statewide margins. But that progress slipped in 2022, when turnout declined. For Democrats, even modest gains in Black turnout alongside strong gains with Latino voters could transform Texas from a long shot into a true battleground. A breakthrough victory for Democrat James Talarico would flip a seat and reshape the national political map. North Carolina presents a different kind of opportunity. The state has already been competitive for Democrats in recent years. With Black voters accounting for roughly 20 to 23 percent of the electorate, statewide races are often decided by razor-thin margins. A one- or two-point increase in Black turnout can determine the outcome. Yet, like Texas, North Carolina saw a drop in participation from presidential-year highs to the 2022 midterms. Democrats have a strong candidate in former Governor Roy Cooper, who has consistently demonstrated the ability to win statewide. But his success has always depended on robust Black voter engagement—which requires sustained national investment, not just candidate strength. Democrats have the right candidate in North Carolina, but the party must follow through with the right strategy. That strategy starts with robust resources for Black turnout across urban and rural communities. Then there is Georgia, where the blueprint for success already exists. Black voters routinely make up nearly a third of the electorate in high-turnout elections and were instrumental in Democratic victories in the 2020 presidential election and the subsequent Senate runoffs. The reelection of Senator Raphael Warnock confirmed that these gains were not a one-time surge but the result of years of organizing and investment. Georgia shows what is possible when Black voters are prioritized as the foundation of a winning strategy. That approach must be reinforced for Senator Jon Ossoff to secure reelection this year. What ties these states together is not just their competitiveness, but the fact that Black turnout is not guaranteed. Just because Black voters dislike Trump does not mean they are automatically ready to vote for Democrats. Democrats’ fate with Black voters rises and falls based on investment, outreach, and whether Black voters feel seen and heard. Too often, Democrats assume that demographic change alone will deliver victory. It will not. Elections are decided by the voters who actually show up on Election Day. Black turnout, especially in midterm cycles, must be earned. This is where Democrats have stumbled before. Underinvestment in organizing, particularly in Black communities, has led to missed opportunities in states that were within reach. The lesson from recent elections is unmistakable: when Black turnout is high, Democrats win. When it dips, even slightly, the path narrows or disappears entirely. The stakes could not be higher. Control of the Senate determines which laws pass, which judges are confirmed, and whether a governing agenda can move forward at all. In an era of razor-thin margins, a single seat can decide the direction of the country. If Democrats are serious about reclaiming the Senate in 2026, they must be equally serious about where they invest their time, resources, and attention. That means looking south and committing, early and aggressively, to turning out Black voters in Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia—especially in a legal landscape where Black access to the ballot is under attack. The path is there. The data is clear. The only question is whether Democrats will act on it. Kevin Harris is a Democratic strategist who has advised over 100 campaigns and ballot measures, including the past five presidential elections. |
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